The Emerald Isle

Kilkee. Soon to be the most exciting place in Ireland.

Ireland's Taoiseach, Enda Kenny, has emphatically denied that the country will need a second bailout. The markets should have figured out how this works by now; first, rumours are circulated that a country will soon come back to ask for another loan from EU and IMF. Second, the national leader or head of government of that country, as well as a host of senior ministers and top economists, line up to denounce the rumours as incorrect, and explain, in detail, why they will not need to be bailed out. Third, they are bailed out.

It's a pattern that the EU has repeated time and time again, and now they're presumably trying the same trick with Ireland's second bailout. For all the talk of why Greece is not Ireland is not Portugal is not Spain is not Italy is not Belgium, when it comes down to it there is one simple truth: nothing the EU or European finance ministers say on the matter is correct.

From Brian Lenihan saying in 2010 that 'Ireland is not Greece' to the Greek finance minister saying that 'Greece is not Ireland,' everything they have said has been proven wrong. So, Ireland will need a second bailout, and then Portugal might do, as well. In fact, going by their past record, they're already negotiating one.

The reasons given for Enda Kenny's confidence were particularly shaky: the fact that the government is currently in a deal with the EU and IMF doesn't necessarily preclude another deal being written. Greece was, and still is, in a deal with the EU and IMF, and they received a second bailout. He was speaking after Ireland's Transport Minister expressed doubts over Ireland's ability to return to the markets, and so his remarks are probably more to do with political expediency and calming the markets than they are economic reality.